How Draft Position Can Affect Your Strategy

It’s amazing how a random luck-of-the-draw at the beginning of fantasy drafts that determines the draft order can have such a large effect on your entire strategy.  Picking in the first four slots is extremely beneficial this season, as there are four players (Johnson, Peterson, Rice, and Jones-Drew) who are leaps and bounds above the rest of the field.  So what do you do if you pick in the middle or late positions of your draft? 

Assuming you’re in a 12-team league, picking in the middle rounds (5-9) can be a major disadvantage in 2010.  In PPR leagues, I’ve seen Andre Johnson as pretty much the consensus #5 overall pick, which is way too high for him, in my opinion.  But it’s also too high for Frank Gore and the elite quarterbacks, so who do you pick?  I’d recommend trying to get Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees in that 5-9 range, as the top-6 QB’s (Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Romo, Brady, Schaub) are significantly better than the rest of the pack.  It’s essential that one of these QB’s is on your roster come Week 1. 

If you pick in the dreaded 10-12 area, running backs are pretty much out of the question, unless Ryan Mathews or Michael Turner manages to fall in your lap.  I would target Peyton Manning, assuming Rodgers and Brees are gone already, along with either Randy Moss or Miles Austin.  If all three of the top QB’s are gone, take Romo or Brady.  Try and get off sequence from the other managers, while they are taking WR’s, take your RB’s.  Running back is a very deep position this season, so grabbing two in the first two or three rounds is not essential. 

It’s too difficult to predict who will be available after the first two rounds, but make sure you have at least five or six starters before you start backing up your RB’s.  Too often I’ve seen people needlessly select three high-quality RB’s while neglecting their other key positions.  Target your third RB in rounds 6 or 7, depending on who is available.  Having an elite QB is key to having a successful season in 2010, as half of the managers in the league will not get one.  Don’t get me wrong, I think Joe Flacco and Kevin Kolb are going to have good seasons, but I’d rather have a proven stud QB starting for me come playoff time. 

So there you have it, my most important advice before your fantasy draft is make sure you get one of the top-4 draft positions.  If not, you will have to alter your draft strategy to make sure you get the most value for your picks while piecing together your team.  All I can say is, have a strategy for each portion of the draft and stick to it once the draft begins.  Don’t second guess your picks, be confident.