Underperforming Stars: Trend or Anomaly?

As Week 3 approaches, several fantasy studs have been very quiet so far on the young season.  The question becomes, “How do you differentiate a trend and an anomaly?”  Luckily we here at hotfantasyfootballpicks.com can provide you with a little clarity.  Here’s our breakdown of which preseason fantasy stars are fading fast, and which ones will return to stardom in the upcoming weeks. 

Elite Performers

These players have had tough starts to their seasons, but be patient, big things are on the horizon:

Randy Moss – NE – Through two games, Moss has yet to crack 100 yards receiving on the season, due mostly to the fact he’s dealt with Leon Hall and Darrelle Revis in back-to-back weeks.  Moss’ mid-season schedule is much less daunting, and as we saw last Sunday, Moss certainly can still make the highlight-reel catches.  Stick with him.

Tony Romo – DAL – Dallas’ offense has come under fire for the team’s 0-2 start, but they’re not that far off.  Tony Romo has looked solid despite the team’s propensity for mistakes during the first two weeks.  He has been in-sync with Miles Austin, and once the team decides to cast Roy Williams into oblivion and start Dez Bryant, the offense should be fine.  Let’s not forget Romo has played two pretty good defenses (@WSH, CHI) to start the season. 

DeAngelo Williams – CAR – Williams has not been able to break loose so far as fantasy owners are sure to be questioning if they made a mistake drafting Williams in the second round of drafts.  The important thing is that Williams has dominated carries, relegating Jonathan Stewart to a strict change-of-pace role so far.  The insertion of Jimmy Clausen can only help, as Matt Moore has been terrible through two games.  We like Williams to rebound, especially in the second half when his schedule gets much easier. 

Cedric Benson – CIN – Benson has also been quiet to start the season and, much like others on this list, has faced two difficult opponents (@NE, BAL) early on.  Benson gets CAR, CLE, and TB in his next three games, however, so his prospects are looking good.  Carson Palmer’s arm-strength has still been an issue, so don’t worry about Cincinnati abandoning the run any time soon. 

Ryan Mathews – SD – Mathews left Sunday’s game with a sprained ankle, but will miss very little time, if any.  He will remain the focal point of the Chargers’ offense throughout the season, as neither Malcom Floyd nor Legedu Naanee have emerged as a major threat in the passing game.  Mathews will have plenty of big games this season, provided he’s healthy. 

Calvin Johnson – DET – With just 95 yards through two games, Johnson owners are surely not elated with the production they’re getting from their top WR.  Still, with Matt Stafford due back in a few weeks and the emergence of Jahvid Best in the running game, Johnson’s value is on the uptick.  Nate Burleson is expected to miss a little time with an ankle injury, but look for Calvin to get back on track within the next few weeks. 

Flaming Out

We’d start shopping these players around while they still have a lot of value, because their stocks are as high know as they’re going to be this season:

Larry Fitzgerald – ARI – We haven’t been high on Fitzgerald since Kurt Warner’s retirement press conference, and nothing has shown that we were wrong in that assumption.  Despite a decent week against Atlanta (7 rec., 83 yards), Fitzgerald simply doesn’t have a quarterback who can consistently get him the football.  Despite one of the league’s easiest schedules, we’d see what offers were out there if we owned Fitzgerald in fantasy leagues. 

Shonn Greene – NYJ – One of the biggest fantasy disappointments through two weeks, this second-round fantasy selection could be going down as the year’s biggest bust.  With a resurgent LaDanian Tomlinson stealing away carries, Greene has been relegated to a strict running back-by-committee role.  Add in the fact he doesn’t get catches, and Greene’s outlook is bleak, at best.

Steve Smith – NYG – Smith has been held to just 78 yards on nine catches through two games and with the emergence of Hakeem Nicks as the #1 target in the passing game, Smith is not going to be able to repeat his ’09 numbers.  Let’s remember that Smith went over 80 yards receiving only three times last season.  His consistency was what made him such a valuable fantasy commodity, and with two duds in consecutive weeks to start the season, that could be disappearing.  He’ll surely have some good outings this season, especially for PPR-owners, but Smith is not going to reward owners who selected him in rounds 4-6. 

Felix Jones – DAL – Jones has been non-existent this season, rushing for just 45 yards through two games.  Despite all the talk of Jones being “The Guy” this season, Marion Barber and Tashard Choice are still getting significant touches.  Unless one of those two gets hurt, Jones will likely be in a strict time-share for the duration of the season. 

CJ Spiller – BUF – For all of those who jumped on the hype-train for Spiller, it’s safe to get off now.  Despite the Bills’ declaration to get the ball into Spiller’s hands, the overall state of the offense makes it prohibitive for any of Buffalo’s backs to maintain any consistent value.  If the Bills trade Marshawn Lynch it would help Spiller’s value, but as of now, we’re not expecting a whole lot in year one. 

Jury’s Still Out

Here are a few player’s we’re nervous about, but not ready to give up on just yet:

Maurice Jones-Drew – JAX – We’re still nervous about Jones-Drew’s knee situation, and given the fact he was held to just 31 yards against San Diego, we are holding onto Rashad Jennings on our fantasy squads.  We don’t doubt Jones-Drew’s ability to be effective even at less than 100%, but the knee will remain a long-term concern in our minds. 

Jamaal Charles – KC – Charles almost made our “Flaming Out” list, but his talent is so undeniable that we will remain patient, if frustrated.  Charles has received only 12 touches in each of the first two games, not nearly enough for someone picked in the 2^nd-3^rd round range in most drafts.  We still have to believe Charles’ talent will put him ahead of Thomas Jones eventually though. 

Dwayne Bowe – KC – Matt Cassel has looked so shaky that our expectations for Bowe have taken a serious hit after the first two weeks.  Bowe was an animal during training camp, however, so hopefully Cassel gets his act together for Bowe’s sake.